Trade-linked food security: threats from air pollution and extreme climate events.

The next 20-30 years will see increases in the frequency and severity of air pollution episodes and extreme climate events across parts of Asia and Africa. Together, these events will cause substantial losses in crop productivity with consequences for livelihoods as well as local, regional and global food supply systems. To date, these threats to crop productivity and potential shocks to food supply systems are poorly understood. Using pump priming funds we will build recently developed air quality and crop impact modelling methods into GEOS-Chem (a regional and global air quality model). We will evaluate this model using accredited methods developed within AgMIP (an international agricultural crop modelling intercomparison programme) to provide ‘proof of concept’ of our methods. We will then showcase potential applications of these novel modelling methods within proposals capable of relating shock changes in crop yield (due to episodic air quality and climate extremes) to food supply chains.

PI: Lisa Emberson, University of York